Central Asia in decades to come: Impact on Kashmir

By K.N. Pandita

The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 threw up the vast region of Central Asia as a new and significant geopolitical entity bound to influence the course of Asian history. Under the Soviet power, it had remained something like a forbidden land about which there were only surmises and speculations. An air of mystique surrounded the very name of Central Asia and our mind remained riveted to the legends of Great Steppes, warring nomadic people, the oases of historic antiquity, the celebrated horse riders and their shifting camps etc.

Illusion and reality:

Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, all predominantly Muslim countries were the first to focus their attention on independent countries of Central Asia in 1991. Each came with a specific card to play. Turkey contemplated playing the Pan-Turkie card meaning the Turkish ethnicity and language.

Saudi Arabia and Pakistan entered Central Asia in a big way carrying the Islamic ard. The Saudis opened their coffers and poured money for building mosques and in providing millions of of excellently printed copies of Quran for distribution to each and every family in Central Asia. But their message was that of Wahhabi Sunni Islam. Likewise, Pakistan besides supporting the Wahhabism, also went on sniffing fissionable material in nuclear plants in Central Asia built by the Soviets like the one in Khujand in Tajikistan.

Iran tried to confine herself mostly to Tajkikistan, where from times immemorial, the people of Aryan stock had been at loggerheads with those of the Turkic stock. Furthermore, the linguistic affinity between Farsi and Tajiki was another positive attraction for them. Therefore moving more subtly, they used the cultural commonality as the safe and dependable means of making inroads into Tajik society.

In strategic terms, American presence will continue in Central Asia for a long time to come for many reasons. In the first place nobody can predict what way the Islamic fundamentalism will behave. As long as Al-Qaeda brand diehards are there, the show of muscle power has to be the part of strategy. Since the Chinese are faced with the problem in Xinjiang and the Russians in the southern Muslim states, both the countries will have to re-adjust their regional strategies in order to accommodate moderate American military presence in Central Asia.

America's military presence will help modernize defence system of the CARs. The Americans are already imparting new techniques of military training to Uzbek army units and this will spread to other republics also. Moreover new generation weapons and armament will also flow to Central Asia because the markets will be thrown open on western manufacturers of the latest weaponry. This will help create a sense of stability and self-sufficiency among the CARs.

In regard to religion, it has to be noted that Islam is the predominant religion in these republics. But the truth is that left to themselves, the Central Asians would be a model of moderate and progressive Islam outward looking and desiring practically to coexist peacefully with other faiths. If the damaging influence of neighbouring fanatical Islamic states is contained and disallowed to penetrate into Central Asian societies, then, of course,