Tectonic shifts in separatist camps

By David Devadas

A Congress-led coalition has been elected, most of the Congress seats coming from the Jammu region. However, even the Congress and Mufti Mohammed Sayeed's People's Democrtatic Front between them are short of nine MLAs for a majority, once they have elected a Speaker.

There is no dearth of independents and other smaller groups but each will want his pound of flesh, in ministerial berths or other potentially lucrative appointments. Mufti told me a few days ago that a clean government would be his priority, but the pressures of keeping so many disparate members happy will make that rather a tall order. The result no doubt will be public disillusionment sooner than later. Expectations run high. A young village voter in the Ganderbal constituency told me minutes after Omar Abdullah's defeat had been announced that the PDP man who had won the prestigious seat would end unemployment. That is an even taller order. In its six-year stint, the NC made tens of thousands of appointments at government expense - most of them to friends, relatives, neighbours, or for cash.

This leaves little largesse for the new government to disburse. The result inevitably will be dis-illusionment sooner than later. Indeed, the anger that drift, corruption or non-performance by the new government will generate might in a few months make the current anti-incumbency surge seem like child's play.

The next few months could witness turmoil  in the secessionist camp too. The All Parties Hurriyat Conference has smartly challenged the new government to deliver on restoring peace through tripartite talks, as at least the PDP has repeatedly promised. Knowing that it would be laughed out of court if it tried to challenge the fairness of the electoral process, some senior Hurriyat leaders quickly confabulated at lunchtime on Thursday, even as the trend of results was just becoming clear. They figured that holding a weak, unstable regime to its camapign word was the best strategy in its awkward situation. Common people too talk of their expectations that this new government will cause a resolution of the larger Kashmir issue. Obviously, that is even tougher for it than to provide a clean, purposeful administration. Its task will be made tougher by the intricate network of NC activists, as well as those among the hitherto secessionist groups who have been encouraged by the success of this process to seek participation in the next round of elections. Shabir Shah and Azam Inquilabi were on the verge of participating even this time. The People's Conference, which was founded by Abdul Ghani Lone, actually backed proxy candidates - and not just two or three but 15. Now, I believe the sons of the assassinated Hurriyat leader want to enter the electoral arena directly in the next few years. They are just waiting for a credible opportunity to leave the Hurriyat, possibly along with the Mirwaiz.

They would like nothing better than for the Hurriyat to expel them but, predictably, Pakistan has pulled out all stops to persuade them to stay. With mainstream politics so precariously poised and such tectonic shifts in the separatist camps. Kashmiris are in for a hot summer next year, if not a sweltering winter.

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